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Retirement Nestegg Report July 2020

Retirement Nestegg Report July 2020

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Well another banner month for our retirement nestegg with us hitting four different $100k milestones in a single month including punching through the multi-million dollar mark.

Things are obviously down a bit from that all time high, but hard to get upset at all about putting on over $200k in a single month and have now put on $634k YTD. Our individual stocks have returned just under 100% YTD and things are coming together better than I ever could have expected. My original goal was to hit $1M by age 40 and we actually hit the $2M mark.

Life is good.

Fidelity Taxable – $5,648.33(+7.36%)
Taxable Account- $158,850.64(+23.21%)
Private Stock $72,000 (+0.00%)
Traditional Rollover IRA – $77,667.94 (+13.28%)
My Roth IRA – $629,034.16(+18.34%)
Wife Roth IRA – $362,755.12(+14.91%)
Wife 401k – $4,860.75(+5.61%)
Traditional 401k – $572,019.27(+5.00%)

Roth/(Traditional+Taxable) % = 50.69% (tax free)

Total Retirement Nest Egg $1,882,836.21(+12.65%)
Retirement Salary (4%) $75,313

Monthly Contributions $466.92(401k)
SP500 Performance +5.51%
My Monthly Investment Performance +12.62% (+7.11% vs SP500)
My Monthly Individual Stocks Performance +17.57% (+12.06% vs SP500)

Interim Retirement Nestegg Report – $2M

Interim Retirement Nestegg Report – $2M

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Well today our nestegg hit $2M about 30 minutes into a new trading day where just the prior day it had just hit $1.9M.

This was a direct result of TSLA continuing its meteoric climb. This has been very rewarding as there has never been a stock where I had a stronger conviction on. There have been many bumps in the road and lots of naysayers – just like all there have been with all of our big winners (Netflix, Amazon, etc), but it is very rewarding (mentally and financially) to take the long term view and ignore all of the nonesense that has zero affect on the long term picture.

Now that we have hit the $2M milestone and the fact that these $100k milestones are now hit on a daily basis I will no longer update things mid month with interim financial reports and will just do my normal monthly reports going forward.

Taxable Account Ally- $186,598.38
Taxable Fidelity – $5,653.53
Private Stock $72,000
Traditional Rollover IRA – $79,594.95
My Roth IRA – $697,754.08
Wife Roth IRA – $398,426.82
Wife 401k – $4,647.64
Traditional 401k – $560,862.98

Roth/Traditional % = 54.66% (tax free)

Total Retirement Nest Egg $2,005,538.38
Retirement Salary (4%) $80,221

$100,000 NestEgg Milestones

Date DOW Jones Value MFJ Nestegg Time to Achieve
Oct 2008 10,000 $ 69,300 29 years 2 months
Oct 2009 10,000 (+0%) $100,000 (+44%) 30 years 2 months
Feb 2012 13,000 (+30%) $200,000 (+100%) 2 years 5 months
Jul 2013 15,423 (+19%) $300,000 (+50%) 1 years 5 months
Feb 2014 16,395.88 (+6.3%) $400,000 (+33%) 7 months
April 2015 18,084.48 (+10.30%) $500,000 (+25%) 1 year 2 months
August 2016 18,636.05 (+3.05%) $600,000 (+20%) 1 year 4 months
January 2017 20,068.51 (+7.69%) $700,000 (+17%) 5 months
June 2017 $21,182.53 (+5.56%) $800,000 (+14%) 5 months
January 2018 $25,484.72(+20.31%) $900,000 (+12.5%) 7 months
May 2018 $24,667.78(-3.21%) $1,000,000 (+11.1%) 4 months
April 2019 $26,234.34 (+2.94%) $1,100,000 (+10.0%) 11 months
December 2019 $28,331.20 (+7.99%) $1,200,000 (+9.1%) 8 months
January 2020 $28,885.42(+1.96%) $1,300,000 (+8.3%) 0 months 28 days
February 2020 $28,399.81(-1.68%) $1,400,000 (+7.7%) 0 months 21 days
February 2020 $29,308.80(+3.20%) $1,500,000 (+7.14%) 0 months 15 days
June 2020 $27,049.00(-7.71%) $1,600,000 (+6.67%) 3 months 22 days
July 2020 $25,884.15(-4.31%) $1,700,000 (+6.25%) 0 months 21 days
July 2020 $26,209.81(+1.26%) $1,800,000 (+5.88%) 0 months 5 days
July 2020 $26,075.30(-0.51%) $1,900,000 (+5.56%) 0 months 4 days
July 2020 $26,365.23(+1.11%) $2,000,000 (+5.26%) 0 months 1 day
Interim Retirement Nestegg Report $1.9M

Interim Retirement Nestegg Report $1.9M

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I’m not even sure what to say anymore. I don’t think I could have imagined what has happened this year in my wildest dreams. My nestegg has put on just under $660,000 in value this year while there is a global pandemic and the market indexes as a whole are down for the year.

My individual stocks driven by Tesla, Shopify, Netflix, and Amazon are just absolutely crushing the market as a whole. My individual stocks are currently up 106.85% YTD meanwhile the SP 500 is currently at -1.41% YTD for a market outperformance of over 108% in just over 6 months.

I have put the majority of my money in my vanguard index funds and yet my individual stocks have performed so well that they now account for over 70% of my portfolio and the 4 stocks that I listed above as crushing it now account for almost 52% of my retirement nestegg. Clearly this opens me up for some extreme volatility and so far this year its been the good kind of volatility which is exacerbating the “problem”.

Like I mentioned before when it comes time to rely solely on my investments for livable income the vast majority of my money will be rebalanced into index funds, but for now I will continue to let it ride knowing full well that a half a million dollars or more could easily be wiped off in a short period of time, but I am still ok with that.

I feel like I have done the right thing with asset allocation and my only mistake has been that I was too good/lucky with the smaller portion that I allocated to individual stocks. I just went and calculated and over the last 14.5 years that I’ve been investing in individual stocks my annualized return currently sits at 19.23%. Now granted this year has helped this tremendously but all along it’s been outpacing the market enough to make me think it was worthwhile in my specific case.

19.23% annualized returns or even touching an individual stock is not at all necessary for early retirement. In fact I would argue that in 90%+ of cases it will result in you getting to retirement much slower, but in my case I just got extremely lucky.

Taxable Account Ally- $167,917.55
Taxable Fidelity – $5,716.76
Private Stock $72,000
Traditional Rollover IRA – $77,126.62
My Roth IRA – $650,714.27
Wife Roth IRA – $375,381.24
Wife 401k – $4,647.64
Traditional 401k – $554,649.92

Roth/Traditional % = 53.77% (tax free)

Total Retirement Nest Egg $1,908,154.00
Retirement Salary (4%) $76,326

$100,000 NestEgg Milestones

Date DOW Jones Value MFJ Nestegg Time to Achieve
Oct 2008 10,000 $ 69,300 29 years 2 months
Oct 2009 10,000 (+0%) $100,000 (+44%) 30 years 2 months
Feb 2012 13,000 (+30%) $200,000 (+100%) 2 years 5 months
Jul 2013 15,423 (+19%) $300,000 (+50%) 1 years 5 months
Feb 2014 16,395.88 (+6.3%) $400,000 (+33%) 7 months
April 2015 18,084.48 (+10.30%) $500,000 (+25%) 1 year 2 months
August 2016 18,636.05 (+3.05%) $600,000 (+20%) 1 year 4 months
January 2017 20,068.51 (+7.69%) $700,000 (+17%) 5 months
June 2017 $21,182.53 (+5.56%) $800,000 (+14%) 5 months
January 2018 $25,484.72(+20.31%) $900,000 (+12.5%) 7 months
May 2018 $24,667.78(-3.21%) $1,000,000 (+11.1%) 4 months
April 2019 $26,234.34 (+2.94%) $1,100,000 (+10.0%) 11 months
December 2019 $28,331.20 (+7.99%) $1,200,000 (+9.1%) 8 months
January 2020 $28,885.42(+1.96%) $1,300,000 (+8.3%) 0 months 28 days
February 2020 $28,399.81(-1.68%) $1,400,000 (+7.7%) 0 months 21 days
February 2020 $29,308.80(+3.20%) $1,500,000 (+7.14%) 0 months 15 days
June 2020 $27,049.00(-7.71%) $1,600,000 (+6.67%) 3 months 22 days
July 2020 $25,884.15(-4.31%) $1,700,000 (+6.25%) 0 months 21 days
July 2020 $26,209.81(+1.26%) $1,800,000 (+5.88%) 0 months 5 days
July 2020 $26,075.30(-0.51%) $1,900,000 (+5.56%) 0 months 4 days
Interim Retirement Nestegg Report $1.8M

Interim Retirement Nestegg Report $1.8M

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Well the insanity continues and just 5 days after we hit the $1.7M milestone our nestegg has hit $1.8M. In fact in less than 3 trading days our nestegg has grown by over $130,000 (actually closer to $150k by the time I finish this blog post).

Two big take aways for me are – you can’t time the market as no one in their right mind could have predicted what has gone down in 2020 and secondly compound growth is incredibly powerful. It took me a very long time and lots of sacrifice and saving to accumilate $100,000 by age 30, and now in 2 trading days with zero effort from my side to accumulate an even larger amount while both my wife and I are off for the summer and have no income coming in.
Very powerful.

Edit: After publishing it occurred to me that the Dow is still not back to April 2019 levels and yet our nestegg has grown from $1.1M to $1.8M while the Dow is slightly down. I’m not exactly sure what to make of this other than our individual stocks have been adding an insane amount of growth during this time and as much as I advise against investing in individual stocks I have lucked out tremendously and we have benefited from them.

Taxable Account Ally- $148,001.91
Taxable Fidelity – $5,646.07
Private Stock $72,000
Traditional Rollover IRA – $75,047.27
My Roth IRA – $594,993.36
Wife Roth IRA – $349,723.63
Wife 401k – $4,647.64
Traditional 401k – $550,254.38

Roth/Traditional % = 52.47% (tax free)

Total Retirement Nest Egg $1,800,341.26
Retirement Salary (4%) $72,013

$100,000 NestEgg Milestones

Date DOW Jones Value MFJ Nestegg Time to Achieve
Oct 2008 10,000 $ 69,300 29 years 2 months
Oct 2009 10,000 (+0%) $100,000 (+44%) 30 years 2 months
Feb 2012 13,000 (+30%) $200,000 (+100%) 2 years 5 months
Jul 2013 15,423 (+19%) $300,000 (+50%) 1 years 5 months
Feb 2014 16,395.88 (+6.3%) $400,000 (+33%) 7 months
April 2015 18,084.48 (+10.30%) $500,000 (+25%) 1 year 2 months
August 2016 18,636.05 (+3.05%) $600,000 (+20%) 1 year 4 months
January 2017 20,068.51 (+7.69%) $700,000 (+17%) 5 months
June 2017 $21,182.53 (+5.56%) $800,000 (+14%) 5 months
January 2018 $25,484.72(+20.31%) $900,000 (+12.5%) 7 months
May 2018 $24,667.78(-3.21%) $1,000,000 (+11.1%) 4 months
April 2019 $26,234.34 (+2.94%) $1,100,000 (+10.0%) 11 months
December 2019 $28,331.20 (+7.99%) $1,200,000 (+9.1%) 8 months
January 2020 $28,885.42(+1.96%) $1,300,000 (+8.3%) 0 months 28 days
February 2020 $28,399.81(-1.68%) $1,400,000 (+7.7%) 0 months 21 days
February 2020 $29,308.80(+3.20%) $1,500,000 (+7.14%) 0 months 15 days
June 2020 $27,049.00(-7.71%) $1,600,000 (+6.67%) 3 months 22 days
July 2020 $25,884.15(-4.31%) $1,700,000 (+6.25%) 0 months 21 days
July 2020 $26,209.81(+1.26%) $1,800,000 (+5.88%) 0 months 5 days
Interim Retirement Nestegg Report $1.7M

Interim Retirement Nestegg Report $1.7M

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Well the ridiculousness continues. An hour after I published my monthly report my portfolio gained another $30k plus to hit the $1.7M milestone. Cheers

Taxable Account Ally- $133,152.83
Taxable Fidelity – $5,418.79
Private Stock $72,000
Traditional Rollover IRA – $70,799.23
My Roth IRA – $546,259.52
Wife Roth IRA – $324,992.38
Wife 401k – $4,602.43
Traditional 401k – $544,780.32

Roth/Traditional % = 51.12% (tax free)

Total Retirement Nest Egg $1,702,005.50
Retirement Salary (4%) $68,080.22

$100,000 NestEgg Milestones

Date DOW Jones Value MFJ Nestegg Time to Achieve
Oct 2008 10,000 $ 69,300 29 years 2 months
Oct 2009 10,000 (+0%) $100,000 (+44%) 30 years 2 months
Feb 2012 13,000 (+30%) $200,000 (+100%) 2 years 5 months
Jul 2013 15,423 (+19%) $300,000 (+50%) 1 years 5 months
Feb 2014 16,395.88 (+6.3%) $400,000 (+33%) 7 months
April 2015 18,084.48 (+10.30%) $500,000 (+25%) 1 year 2 months
August 2016 18,636.05 (+3.05%) $600,000 (+20%) 1 year 4 months
January 2017 20,068.51 (+7.69%) $700,000 (+17%) 5 months
June 2017 $21,182.53 (+5.56%) $800,000 (+14%) 5 months
January 2018 $25,484.72(+20.31%) $900,000 (+12.5%) 7 months
May 2018 $24,667.78(-3.21%) $1,000,000 (+11.1%) 4 months
April 2019 $26,234.34 (+2.94%) $1,100,000 (+10.0%) 11 months
December 2019 $28,331.20 (+7.99%) $1,200,000 (+9.1%) 8 months
January 2020 $28,885.42(+1.96%) $1,300,000 (+8.3%) 0 months 28 days
February 2020 $28,399.81(-1.68%) $1,400,000 (+7.7%) 0 months 21 days
February 2020 $29,308.80(+3.20%) $1,500,000 (+7.14%) 0 months 15 days
June 2020 $27,049.00(-7.71%) $1,600,000 (+6.67%) 3 months 22 days
July 2020 $25,884.15(-4.31%) $1,700,000 (+6.25%) 0 months 21 days
Retirement Nestegg Report June 2020

Retirement Nestegg Report June 2020

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Well another nice month with the market being up 1.84% and my nestegg growing by 11.77%. Wait What?? This is getting ridiculous with my individual stocks returning 17.81% just this month and 68.31% in just the first 6 months of the year compared to SP 500 which is actually down 4.04% YTD for a market outperformance of 72% YTD!!

Just this month our nestegg grew by over $176,000 in a single month. Clearly this cannot and will not go on forever, but it also does not need to.

Individual stocks and outperformance of the market are not needed to retire early and were never part of the equation and still aren’t going forward. It was a risky experiment that I’ve dabbled in with a relatively small portion of my retirement nestegg savings and just turned out that I was incredibly lucky and that small portion of my nestegg savings has now grown to a ridiculous large number.

This is something that I will eventually pair back to more index funds, but right now the individual stocks driving the outperformance I believe have a long bright future so it will be tough for me to make this call. The good news is even if I am wrong I can afford to be wrong and still go on with life without any worries.

This is something that I don’t know what to call other than a margin of safety but there should be a cooler word for it. The 4% rule assumes you have a portfolio of 50% stock and bond index funds. I’ve always argued why not have 100% stock fund as it has higher returns over the long term and honestly the volatility is only relevant to you if you quit right at or close to your 4% number and have an immediate market correction. If you are well within a margin of safety above your 4% number say 30-50% higher then volatility is irrelevant and I would think the odds of your portfolio surviving and thriving long term are very close to 100%.

Same with these individual stocks – clearly no sane person would recommend putting a large portion of your retirement nestegg in a small basket of individual stocks that will be even more volatile and risky, but I’ve allowed myself to dabble with a small percentage of my portfolio and even if they all went to $0 I wouldn’t have ruined my retirement chances. The issue now is they are so large having grown so much that there is some risk to my portfolio and when we decide to live on our investments we will greatly pair back the individual stocks into index funds and use our time and energy into enjoy life vs having to do anything with our portfolio.

For the record I consider myself primarily lucky with a small percentage of skill in picking individual stocks and would recommend that anyone saving for retirement just put their money into VTSAX and not worry about anything else.

Fidelity Taxable – $5,261.33(+14.11%)
Taxable Account- $128,922.81(+18.64%)
Private Stock $72,000 (+0.00%)
Traditional Rollover IRA – $68,563.58 (+13.41%)
My Roth IRA – $531,548.40(+18.34%)
Wife Roth IRA – $315,723.19(+17.58%)
Wife 401k – $4,602.43(+1.96%)
Traditional 401k – $544,780.32(+3.29%)

Roth/(Traditional+Taxable) % = 50.69% (tax free)

Total Retirement Nest Egg $1,671,402.06(+11.77%)
Retirement Salary (4%) $66,856

Monthly Contributions $1086.50(401k)
SP500 Performance +1.84%
My Monthly Investment Performance +11.70% (+7.14% vs SP500)
My Monthly Individual Stocks Performance +17.81% (+15.97% vs SP500)

Interim Retirement Nestegg Report $1.6M

Interim Retirement Nestegg Report $1.6M

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Well another $100k milestone. 2020 certainly has been a crazy year and just reinforces that no one in their wildest dreams can come remotely close to predicting what will happen to the economy/stock market and you are an absolute idiot if you think you can time the market. Stay invested with a long term focus and let time work in your favor.

The market was actually down about 7% since my last milestone, but my individual stock performance was able to outperform the market and bag another $100k milestone. These are getting less and less impressive as time goes on as my nestegg has grown large enough that only 6% increases will result in another $100k. This in theory could happen in the matter of only a few days. I think once we hit $2M it will require me to go to 250k increments as I honestly will not even be able to follow my portfolio close enough to catch the 100k jumps here pretty soon.

Taxable Account Ally- $122,303.15
Taxable Fidelity – $4,610.29
Private Stock $72,000
Traditional Rollover IRA – $61,873.31
My Roth IRA – $490,244.93
Wife Roth IRA – $286,854.80
Wife 401k – $4,757.59
Traditional 401k – $559,902.91

Roth/Traditional % = 48.49% (tax free)

Total Retirement Nest Egg $1,602,546.98
Retirement Salary (4%) $64,101

$100,000 NestEgg Milestones

Date DOW Jones Value MFJ Nestegg Time to Achieve
Oct 2008 10,000 $ 69,300 29 years 2 months
Oct 2009 10,000 (+0%) $100,000 (+44%) 30 years 2 months
Feb 2012 13,000 (+30%) $200,000 (+100%) 2 years 5 months
Jul 2013 15,423 (+19%) $300,000 (+50%) 1 years 5 months
Feb 2014 16,395.88 (+6.3%) $400,000 (+33%) 7 months
April 2015 18,084.48 (+10.30%) $500,000 (+25%) 1 year 2 months
August 2016 18,636.05 (+3.05%) $600,000 (+20%) 1 year 4 months
January 2017 20,068.51 (+7.69%) $700,000 (+17%) 5 months
June 2017 $21,182.53 (+5.56%) $800,000 (+14%) 5 months
January 2018 $25,484.72(+20.31%) $900,000 (+12.5%) 7 months
May 2018 $24,667.78(-3.21%) $1,000,000 (+11.1%) 4 months
April 2019 $26,234.34 (+2.94%) $1,100,000 (+10.0%) 11 months
December 2019 $28,331.20 (+7.99%) $1,200,000 (+9.1%) 8 months
January 2020 $28,885.42(+1.96%) $1,300,000 (+8.3%) 0 months 28 days
February 2020 $28,399.81(-1.68%) $1,400,000 (+7.7%) 0 months 21 days
February 2020 $29,308.80(+3.20%) $1,500,000 (+7.14%) 0 months 15 days
June 2020 $27,049.00(-7.71%) $1,600,000 (+6.67%) 3 months 22 days