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My All Time Investment Performance January 2021

My All Time Investment Performance January 2021

Another post that I am not sure what to make of the numbers. I’ve always had a smaller percentage of my retirement nestegg allocated to individual stocks. I know that individual stocks are loaded with a lot more risk and the track record for even the professional money managers is very very poor when it comes to individual stocks. Most of the highest paid investment fund managers cannot beat the market over time.

Despite this I have always enjoyed learning about companies and what the future holds and overall I think I was blessed with a pretty laid back demeanor that helped me from getting too high or too low with the various fluctuations in the market. Ultimately I think this is why so many investors fail – even the highly educated well paid ones. They let their emotions get the best of them and make decisions based on emotions instead of logic.

I have 15 years under my belt now and I see the same themes happen over and over and over again in the market. The market as a whole completely overreacts to ever new bit of news and individual investors swing widely from always seeming to throw money into far fetched get rich quick investments when it seems that there is no way the stock or market could be pushed any higher and then when things inevitably catch up with reality and stuff starts to slide the other direction they sell out completely until the next get rich quick bubble forms.

What I think is missing from a lot of investors is the long term perspective and an educated idea of where the future is headed. Like I mentioned above people get so caught up in the short term fluctuations and don’t take a look at the longer big term picture that is much easier to see and predict.

People also repeatedly think that things are going to stay the same and that is one thing that will never happen. So they always always greatly underestimate the new companies thinking the veteran industry leaders will crush them whenever they want. But the David and Goliath story plays out again and again when the little known upstart with a good idea and a lot of ambition ends up crushing the industry behemoth who is too slow to react or can’t react as they are afraid to disrupt themselves. Netflix vs Blockbuster, Tesla vs the auto industry, Amazon vs brick & motor retailers, etc.

All in all yes any of these stories could have turned out differently had the current #1 took the innovation seriously, but they don’t and they won’t again in the future. Just like it’s obvious you should pour money into the market every time there is a 30% correction – but people don’t. Ultimately it’s always fear that gets the best of people and companies. Fear of change, fear of disruption, fear of losing money, fear of losing out on making money.

Anyway as you can see below somehow the last 15 years I’ve managed to crush the market returns with my individual investments. Now the big caveat there and something I didn’t fully realize until this year is your long term track record is really only as good as your most recent returns. Big numbers have a huge effect on overall performance. Just last year my long term annualize performance was 13.92%, three years before that it was 10.72% which still outperformed the SP500 over that same period of time, but not nearly as impressive.

If next year is a down year my returns will drop significantly. Which means I shouldn’t get too big of a head after one year of spectacular performance. I feel very confident that I will never see another year like this year the rest of my life. So I should really evaluate going forward how much of my money should be individual stocks despite the fact that I currently look like I’m the next Peter Lynch.

MFJ Returns By Year

YearSP500MFJ NesteggMFJ Stocks
200615.79%14.37%14.20%
20075.49%5.50%7.25%
2008-37.00%-47.98%-37.00%
200926.46%32.75%35.78%
201015.06%24.60%36.94%
20112.11%-5.53%-2.29%
201216.00%18.12%10.25%
201332.39%50.20%68.58%
201413.69%8.91%7.91%
20151.38%7.34%14.34%
20169.54%3.32%-4.57%
201718.42%23.31%27.49%
2018-6.24%4.56%15.60%
201928.72%32.46%37.07%
202016.26%117.02%218.49%

MFJ Cumulative Returns By Year

YearSP500MFJ NesteggMFJ Stocks
200615.79%14.37%14.20%
200722.15%20.66%22.48%
2008-23.05%-37.23%-22.84%
2009-2.69%-16.68%4.77%
201011.97%3.82%43.47%
201114.33%-1.92%40.19%
201232.63%15.85%54.56%
201375.58%74.01%160.55%
201499.62%89.51%181.16%
2015102.37%103.42%221.48%
2016121.68%110.18%206.79%
2017162.52%159.17%291.12%
2018146.13%170.99%352.14%
2019216.82%258.95%519.75%
2020268.34%679.00%1873.83%

Annualized Returns since 2006

SP500 +9.08%
MFJ Nestegg +14.68%
MFJ Stocks +22.00%

My best and worst stocks in 2020

My best and worst stocks in 2020

In annual tradition I will list my best and worst individual stock performers for 2020. As you can see from the list below which I cut off at only stocks that I have owned that have doubled for me it was a crazy year.

Tesla +720%
CRWD +256%
TWLO +228%
ZM +193%
DDOG + 181%
SHOP 177%
TTD +170%
NET 122%

Obviously Tesla led the pack and I did do some portfolio rebalancing this spring during the pandemic and bought a few new stocks all of which went bananas. Many of them were up more than the figures above, but I only listed the returns since I bought them in March.

Now for my worst stock of 2020.

SBUX +19.73%

Starbucks was up just under 20%. Every single stock that I own beat the market this year. That is absolutely crazy.

Going forward I will look to rebalance my portfolio to be more balanced. My individual stocks have performed so incredibly well and have grown to become a very large proportion of my retirement nestegg. It probably makes sense to sell off some of these stocks and put them in index funds as the risk/reward situation does not really help me much. The only thing that could change my plans is a massive drop so it probably makes sense to diversify my portfolios more. On the flip side one could argue that I have a big enough margin of error that I should just keep moving full steam ahead as even a 50% haircut would not be devastating. It’s easy to think you are smart when the market is at all time highs, but this cannot go on forever and it probably makes sense to take some of the drama/entertainment out of my life.

Investment Holdings January 2021

Investment Holdings January 2021

TSLA34.07%
VPMAX12.34%
VIIIX12.11%
SHOP8.22%
NFLX5.97%
AMZN5.79%
WOLFRIVER2.99%
CRWD2.84%
AAPL2.57%
CMG2.27%
DDOG1.65%
NET1.59%
SBUX1.58%
COUP0.62%
OKTA0.60%
TDOC0.54%
FUBO0.51%
TWLO0.44%
BIP0.41%
ZM0.38%
ISRG0.36%
TXRH0.33%
DOCU0.32%
TTD0.32%
$$CASH0.30%
COST0.29%
MSFT0.28%
VFIAX0.20%
FSLY0.12%
My All Time Investment Performance January 2020

My All Time Investment Performance January 2020

Well I have been investing for 14 full years now and must say I’m very happy with the performance of my individual stocks. I think most of this has been luck as I’ve owned some of the best stocks of the last 20 years (Netflix, Amazon, etc), but also think I can take a tiny bit of credit of having some foresight on those companies and not buying into the noise in the financial news.

I’ve actually only invested $149k in individual stocks and yet they were worth over $688k. On the flip side I’ve invested over $302k in index funds and they are worth $554k. Had I not toyed around and gotten “lucky” with my individual stocks my life plans would be a little different right now.

MFJ Returns By Year

YearSP500MFJ NesteggMFJ Stocks
200615.79%14.37%14.20%
20075.49%5.50%7.25%
2008-37.00%-47.98%-37.00%
200926.46%32.75%35.78%
201015.06%24.60%36.94%
20112.11%-5.53%-2.29%
201216.00%18.12%10.25%
201332.39%50.20%68.58%
201413.69%8.91%7.91%
20151.38%7.34%14.34%
20169.54%3.32%-4.57%
201718.42%23.31%27.49%
2018-6.24%4.56%15.60%
201928.72%32.46%37.07%

MFJ Cumulative Returns By Year

YearSP500MFJ NesteggMFJ Stocks
200615.79%14.37%14.20%
200722.15%20.66%22.48%
2008-23.05%-37.23%-22.84%
2009-2.69%-16.68%4.77%
201011.97%3.82%43.47%
201114.33%-1.92%40.19%
201232.63%15.85%54.56%
201375.58%74.01%160.55%
201499.62%89.51%181.16%
2015102.37%103.42%221.48%
2016121.68%110.18%206.79%
2017162.52%159.17%291.12%
2018146.13%170.99%352.14%
2019216.82%258.95%519.75%

Annualized Returns since 2006

SP500 +8.59%
MFJ Nestegg +9.56%
MFJ Stocks +13.92%

My best and worst stocks in 2019

My best and worst stocks in 2019

I actually only had 10 stocks beat the market this year and 12 stocks that trailed the market, yet my overall individual stock performance almost bested the market by over 10% points for 2019

Shopify led the way with a banner year almost tripling in value in 2019 and has now grown to become my 3rd largest individual holding.

Chipotle made the list for a 2nd year in a row and is completing its massive comeback after being on my biggest loser list in 2015,2016, and 2017.

Apple was actually a surprise for me being the largest company in the world but still growing at a small cap rate.

Actually with the exception of Shopify and Alteryx I would have looked at the rest of the stocks on the list as boring stable companies and here they are outpacing many of the supposed high flyer stocks in a banner year for the market.

Shopify +187.17%
Chipotle Mexican Grill +93.87%
Apple +86.16%
Alteryx +68.27%
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners +44.77%
Costco +44.28%

As far as biggest losers there really is only one. BJ’s was down nearly 25% this year. Not sure what to say here – they are a small restaurant stock and account for 0.50% of my nestegg.

BJ’s Restaurants -24.94%

My Investment Holdings January 2020

My Investment Holdings January 2020

In annual tradition I will list all of my current investments. These really do not change significantly from year to year as I don’t do a lot of buying and selling and well now as my portfolio has grown so big the amount of money I am putting in towards new investments tends to be sort of insignificant.

Not really too much to add over last years analysis as my portfolio is essentially the same with only 2-3 minor purchases this year.

Ticker% of Porfolio
VPMAX12.29%
VIIIX11.61%
VIEIX10.55%
TSLA10.53%
VILVX10.17%
NFLX7.91%
SHOP6.39%
AMZN6.09%
WOLFRIVER5.79%
AAPL3.13%
CMG3.03%
SBUX2.33%
ANET1.83%
UA1.13%
BIP1.04%
AX0.97%
MIDD0.92%
BRK-B0.91%
AYX0.80%
ISRG0.57%
TXRH0.56%
BJRI0.50%
COST0.30%
TWLO0.28%
BKNG0.17%
ZS0.16%
$$CASH0.03%
My Investment Holdings January 2017

My Investment Holdings January 2017

In annual tradition I will list all of my current investments. These really do not change significantly from year to year as I don’t do a lot of buying and selling and well now as my portfolio has grown so big the amount of money I am putting in towards new investments tends to be sort of insignificant.

That being said there was some movement around this year. The mutual funds are part of my 401k and are a very similar percentage of my overall retirement nestegg. I max out my 401k each year and kind of just set it and forget about it. My 401k makes up about 45% of my nestegg.

My individual stock holdings comprise of about 30-40 stocks with the new addition this year being that I am now including some private stock I had previously not included that is actually my largest individual stock holding. My top 5 public stock holdings this year are Netflix, Tesla Motors, Amazon, Buffalo Wild Wings, and Under Armour which are the same five from last year with a few of them flipping spots.

I feel super good about that top 5. My Tesla stake has increased due to the large investment I had in Solar City which the acquired as well as most of my investment money this year going to Tesla. I feel very strongly that their future will be very bright and have a big enough and diversified portfolio that I can probably take a larger risk there without it really affecting my overall portfolio too negatively.

SYMBOLPercentage
VPMAX11.49%
VIEIX11.48%
VINIX11.38%
VILVX10.73%
Private Bank Stock8.95%
NFLX6.47%
TSLA6.44%
AMZN4.59%
BWLD4.38%
UA4.15%
SBUX2.57%
CMG2.53%
AAPL2.19%
MIDD2.02%
BOFI1.28%
BRK-B1.22%
AMBA1.17%
BIP1.12%
BJRI0.94%
PNRA0.89%
ANET0.61%
TXRH0.60%
IPGP0.56%
ISRG0.38%
ZOES0.34%
COST0.28%
PRLB0.27%
SHOP0.26%
DDD0.25%
PCLN0.22%
SAM0.15%
SSYS0.09%